Designing new markets and institutions
Prosperity rests on institutions that let strangers cooperate. Blockchain lets people redesign money, lending and organisations as code; I study when those designs hold, and when they break.
Can code-based money, lending and organisations earn lasting trust?
Liquidity fuels crypto; uncertainty cools itU.S. excess liquidity lifts monthly crypto returns by about 12 percentage points; rising policy uncertainty cuts that premium roughly in half
Excess liquidity, cryptocurrency returns, and the moderating role of economic policy uncertainty
Across ten major cryptocurrencies from 2019 to 2024, periods of U.S. excess liquidity coincide with monthly returns about 12 percentage points higher. Rising policy uncertainty cuts that premium roughly in half, and in China it more than offsets it.
Why it matters: regulators can watch stablecoin issuance, leverage and funding conditions to anticipate liquidity-driven speculation.
On-chain bank runswhat drives funding liquidity risk in DeFi lending
The determinants of funding liquidity risk in decentralized lending
Examines how liquidity is interconnected across DeFi lending platforms and identifies what drives their funding liquidity risk, the decentralised equivalent of a bank run.
Why it matters: points protocol designers to the levers, such as interest-rate design, that keep open lending markets stable.
USDT & USDC leadinstability spreads from the two largest stablecoins
Are the stabilities of stablecoins connected?
Among the five largest stablecoins, instability in USDT and USDC significantly drives instability in the others, with weaker evidence for the reverse.
Why it matters: shows users and regulators which coins to watch to protect confidence in digital money.
Following the crowdherding in crypto around the 2024 U.S. election
Herding behavior of cryptocurrency during the 2024 U.S. presidential election
Examines whether cryptocurrency investors abandoned their own information and followed the crowd around a major political event, building on earlier evidence of herding during the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Why it matters: shows how political events can turn independent investors into a herd, with consequences for market stability.
Money as codewhat programmable money means for growth and inflation
Monetary policy in the age of cryptocurrencies
Reviews the history of monetary technologies from commodity to fiat money, assesses the challenges and opportunities of adopting programmatic cryptocurrencies as legal tender, and compares proof-of-work and proof-of-stake issuance.
Why it matters: asks how new forms of money would affect growth, inflation and the concentration of wealth.